Market Update - September 2026

If anyone has been watching their portfolio lately, you may have noticed a non-insignificant downturn in value over the past month.

We’ve had a pretty good run over the last year or so with consistent gains month over month, with a few exceptions here and there (late March comes to mind). So, what is going on here?

I will get to that in a moment, but at times like this, especially after we’ve had it good for quite a while, I like to zoom out and refocus in on what is actually the core strategy for my or anyone else’s portfolio.

Our strategy should be aligned with our financial planning goals.

Is how we are positioned commensurate with this strategy? If it is—it better be, right?—then we can relax and go back to living life. This will work itself out. We picked this strategy for a good reason.

In addition, some perspective on the data is in order. Where did the portfolio start at the beginning of the year? Are we still positive for the year? How about two years?

If okay, again, we can relax and go back to living life. If it was not performing up to expectations, we should have caught that long ago (we look at everything quarterly).

For those that are more on the tactical side, we might be looking at some sidelined cash and potential buying opportunities in these downturns.

Looking Under the Hood

All that said, from my Advisor perspective, I would like to understand the mechanics under the hood of why this is going on and whether it is indicative of some bigger trend that would affect a core strategy position.

An example is the last presidential election and the effects of the new policy priorities and de-prioritization of things that were previously favorable.

Also, what the FED might be doing and the outlook for interest rates that will affect the economy.

In the case of 2024, there was a fundamental strategy shift going on that we needed to compensate for.

Is this dynamic of a fundamental change true with what is happening today?

My short answer opinion is “no”; the same previous dynamics are still in place.

From a Dow Theory perspective, everything is still in favor of the bull market.

The biggest factors I see affecting investing right now are interest rates and energy prices from the war. Not a surprise.

So, this all has an appearance of a retrenchment within a larger bull market, but I remain watchful of any signs of reversal.

The Core Strategy

In summary, the core strategy we’re in now should be (must be) valid in both up and down markets.

We cannot avoid the pullbacks, but we can mitigate the effect of them at some level through careful investment and portfolio selection.

We’ll take all of the upside all day long. The better we can minimize the downside effects, the better the total end result—matched to our goals—will be (i.e. less impact to our ideal compounding curve).

I highlighted that part on goals on purpose, as we should be investing toward some specific purpose or goal, and position accordingly (that strategy thing once again!).

That’s all for today.

If you have questions about this, or anything else going on in your financial life, give me a call anytime.

Have a great week and blessed day!